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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Buffalo Bills 4th & 15 at the 31

Buffalo Bills 3 – New England Patriots 13

What Actually Happened

(:04) 4-S.Hauschka 49 yard field goal is No Good, Wide Left, Center-69-R.Ferguson, Holder-9-C.Bojorquez.

The Three Options

GO +0.58 EP
  • 22% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 16, worth +2.84 EP
  • 78% chance to fail: New England Patriots takes over around their own 31, worth -0.06 EP
KICK +2.11 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 72% chance to make a 48-yard field goal: 3 points, then New England Patriots takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +2.99 EP
  • 28% chance to miss: New England Patriots takes over around their own 41, worth -0.21 EP
PUNT +0.01 EP
  • New England Patriots would take over around their own 11, worth +0.01 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model