Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 New England Patriots 4th & 8 at the 75

New England Patriots 13 – Buffalo Bills 10

What Actually Happened

(9:13) 7-J.Bailey punts 63 yards to BUF 12, Center-49-J.Cardona. 18-A.Roberts to BUF 24 for 12 yards (31-J.Jones; 55-J.Simon). PENALTY on NE-18-M.Slater, Unsportsmanlike Conduct, 15 yards, enforced at BUF 24.

The Three Options

GO -2.18 EP

39% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 67, worth +1.39 EP
61% chance to fail: Buffalo Bills takes over around their own 75, worth -4.46 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (92 yards).

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model