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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 New England Patriots 4th & 4 at the 40

New England Patriots 13 – Buffalo Bills 10

What Actually Happened

(5:35) 7-J.Bailey punts 29 yards to BUF 11, Center-49-J.Cardona, fair catch by 18-A.Roberts.

The Three Options

GO +0.66 EP
Model's Pick
  • 46% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 36, worth +3.63 EP
  • 54% chance to fail: Buffalo Bills takes over around their own 40, worth -1.86 EP
KICK -0.31 EP
  • 49% chance to make a 57-yard field goal: 3 points, then Buffalo Bills takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +2.06 EP
  • 51% chance to miss: Buffalo Bills takes over around their own 49, worth -2.63 EP
PUNT +0.04 EP
What Happened
  • Buffalo Bills would take over around their own 11, worth +0.04 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.62 EP