Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Buffalo Bills 4th & 14 at the 67

Buffalo Bills 0 – New England Patriots 6

What Actually Happened

(6:30) 9-C.Bojorquez punt is BLOCKED by 27-J.Jackson, Center-69-R.Ferguson, RECOVERED by NE-18-M.Slater at BUF 11. 18-M.Slater for 11 yards, TOUCHDOWN.

The Three Options

GO -1.86 EP

27% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 53, worth +2.88 EP
73% chance to fail: New England Patriots takes over around their own 67, worth -3.58 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (84 yards).

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model