Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Tampa Bay Buccaneers 4th & 12 at the 77

Tampa Bay Buccaneers 21 – Los Angeles Rams 7

What Actually Happened

(4:16) 8-B.Pinion punts 42 yards to LA 35, Center-97-Z.Triner, fair catch by 19-J.Natson. PENALTY on TB-26-S.Bunting, Fair Catch Interference, 15 yards, enforced at LA 35.

The Three Options

GO -2.65 EP

32% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 65, worth +1.26 EP
68% chance to fail: Los Angeles Rams takes over around their own 77, worth -4.45 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (94 yards).

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model