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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Los Angeles Rams 4th & 2 at the 40

Los Angeles Rams 20 – Tampa Bay Buccaneers 31

What Actually Happened

(2:54) (Shotgun) 16-J.Goff pass short right intended for 34-M.Brown INTERCEPTED by 58-S.Barrett at TB 43. 58-S.Barrett pushed ob at TB 47 for 4 yards (79-R.Havenstein).

The Three Options

GO +1.22 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 59% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 38, worth +3.43 EP
  • 41% chance to fail: Tampa Bay Buccaneers takes over around their own 40, worth -1.95 EP
KICK -0.01 EP
  • 56% chance to make a 57-yard field goal: 3 points, then Tampa Bay Buccaneers takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +2.13 EP
  • 44% chance to miss: Tampa Bay Buccaneers takes over around their own 49, worth -2.71 EP
PUNT -0.08 EP
  • Tampa Bay Buccaneers would take over around their own 11, worth -0.08 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO ✓ matched the model