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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Tampa Bay Buccaneers 4th & 3 at the 3

Tampa Bay Buccaneers 45 – Los Angeles Rams 40

What Actually Happened

(2:37) 9-M.Gay 21 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-97-Z.Triner, Holder-8-B.Pinion.

The Three Options

GO +2.51 EP
Model's Pick
  • 44% chance to convert, and it's a touchdown from here: worth +5.95 EP
  • 56% chance to fail: Los Angeles Rams takes over around their own 3, worth -0.24 EP
KICK +1.96 EP
What Happened
  • 98% chance to make a 20-yard field goal: 3 points, then Los Angeles Rams takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +2.01 EP
  • 2% chance to miss: Los Angeles Rams takes over around their own 21, worth -0.66 EP
PUNT -0.32 EP
  • Los Angeles Rams would take over around their own 11, worth -0.32 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.54 EP