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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Tampa Bay Buccaneers 4th & 19 at the 46

Tampa Bay Buccaneers 7 – Los Angeles Rams 0

What Actually Happened

(2:07) 8-B.Pinion punts 46 yards to end zone, Center-97-Z.Triner, Touchback.

The Three Options

GO -1.33 EP
  • 22% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 27, worth +4.06 EP
  • 78% chance to fail: Los Angeles Rams takes over around their own 46, worth -2.88 EP
KICK -1.15 EP
  • 40% chance to make a 63-yard field goal: 3 points, then Los Angeles Rams takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +1.63 EP
  • 60% chance to miss: Los Angeles Rams takes over around their own 49, worth -3.02 EP
PUNT -0.56 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Los Angeles Rams would take over around their own 13, worth -0.56 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model