4TH&DATA
EN ES
Back to Game

Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Tennessee Titans 4th & 3 at the 27

Tennessee Titans 14 – Atlanta Falcons 7

What Actually Happened

(10:07) 7-C.Santos 45 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-48-B.Brinkley, Holder-6-B.Kern.

The Three Options

GO +1.29 EP
Model's Pick
  • 49% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 24, worth +4.17 EP
  • 51% chance to fail: Atlanta Falcons takes over around their own 27, worth -1.50 EP
KICK +0.93 EP
What Happened
  • 84% chance to make a 44-yard field goal: 3 points, then Atlanta Falcons takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +1.56 EP
  • 16% chance to miss: Atlanta Falcons takes over around their own 37, worth -2.26 EP
PUNT -0.48 EP
  • Atlanta Falcons would take over around their own 11, worth -0.48 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.36 EP