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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Tennessee Titans 4th & 14 at the 65

Tennessee Titans 0 – Atlanta Falcons 0

What Actually Happened

(13:13) 6-B.Kern punts 50 yards to ATL 15, Center-48-B.Brinkley. 12-M.Sanu to ATL 17 for 2 yards (30-C.Milton).

The Three Options

GO -2.10 EP
  • 29% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 51, worth +2.57 EP
  • 71% chance to fail: Atlanta Falcons takes over around their own 65, worth -4.04 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (82 yards).

PUNT -1.44 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Atlanta Falcons would take over around their own 23, worth -1.44 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model