4TH&DATA
EN ES
Back to Game

Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Atlanta Falcons 4th & 1 at the 39

Atlanta Falcons 7 – Tennessee Titans 17

What Actually Happened

(5:57) 24-D.Freeman left guard to TEN 40 for -1 yards (24-K.Vaccaro, 99-J.Casey).

The Three Options

GO +1.91 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 68% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 38, worth +3.56 EP
  • 32% chance to fail: Tennessee Titans takes over around their own 39, worth -1.57 EP
KICK +0.40 EP
  • 60% chance to make a 56-yard field goal: 3 points, then Tennessee Titans takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +2.25 EP
  • 40% chance to miss: Tennessee Titans takes over around their own 48, worth -2.34 EP
PUNT +0.08 EP
  • Tennessee Titans would take over around their own 11, worth +0.08 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO ✓ matched the model