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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Atlanta Falcons 4th & 4 at the 14

Atlanta Falcons 7 – Tennessee Titans 24

What Actually Happened

(:35) 3-M.Bryant 32 yard field goal is No Good, Hit Left Upright, Center-47-J.Harris, Holder-5-M.Bosher.

The Three Options

GO +2.06 EP
  • 42% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 10, worth +5.07 EP
  • 58% chance to fail: Tennessee Titans takes over around their own 14, worth -0.10 EP
KICK +2.20 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 95% chance to make a 31-yard field goal: 3 points, then Tennessee Titans takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +2.35 EP
  • 5% chance to miss: Tennessee Titans takes over around their own 24, worth -0.62 EP
PUNT -0.04 EP
  • Tennessee Titans would take over around their own 11, worth -0.04 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model