Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Atlanta Falcons 4th & 6 at the 79

Atlanta Falcons 0 – Tennessee Titans 0

(12:17) 5-M.Bosher punts 34 yards to TEN 45, Center-47-J.Harris, fair catch by 10-A.Humphries.

The Three Options

GO -1.77 EP

44% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 73, worth +1.65 EP
56% chance to fail: Tennessee Titans takes over around their own 79, worth -4.40 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (96 yards).

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model