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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Atlanta Falcons 4th & 20 at the 24

Atlanta Falcons 7 – Tennessee Titans 24

What Actually Happened

(11:41) 3-M.Bryant 42 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-47-J.Harris, Holder-5-M.Bosher.

The Three Options

GO +0.87 EP
  • 20% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 4, worth +5.96 EP
  • 80% chance to fail: Tennessee Titans takes over around their own 24, worth -0.43 EP
KICK +1.97 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 87% chance to make a 41-yard field goal: 3 points, then Tennessee Titans takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +2.43 EP
  • 13% chance to miss: Tennessee Titans takes over around their own 34, worth -1.23 EP
PUNT +0.46 EP
  • Tennessee Titans would take over around their own 11, worth +0.46 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model