4TH&DATA
EN ES
Back to Game

Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Tennessee Titans 4th & 6 at the 55

Tennessee Titans 24 – Atlanta Falcons 10

What Actually Happened

(9:48) 6-B.Kern punts 50 yards to ATL 5, Center-48-B.Brinkley, out of bounds.

The Three Options

GO -0.79 EP
Model's Pick
  • 41% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 49, worth +2.46 EP
  • 59% chance to fail: Atlanta Falcons takes over around their own 55, worth -3.07 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (72 yards).

PUNT -0.95 EP
What Happened
  • Atlanta Falcons would take over around their own 16, worth -0.95 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model