Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Atlanta Falcons 4th & 8 at the 88

Atlanta Falcons 10 – Tennessee Titans 24

(1:56) 5-M.Bosher punts 45 yards to TEN 43, Center-47-J.Harris, fair catch by 10-A.Humphries.

The Three Options

GO -2.56 EP

40% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 80, worth +1.05 EP
60% chance to fail: Tennessee Titans takes over around their own 88, worth -4.97 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (105 yards).

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model