4TH&DATA
EN ES
Back to Game

Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Tennessee Titans 4th & 1 at the 10

Tennessee Titans 24 – Atlanta Falcons 10

What Actually Happened

(13:14) (Shotgun) 22-D.Henry left guard to ATL 12 for -2 yards (44-V.Beasley).

The Three Options

GO +3.29 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 65% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 9, worth +5.22 EP
  • 35% chance to fail: Atlanta Falcons takes over around their own 10, worth -0.31 EP
KICK +1.55 EP
  • 97% chance to make a 27-yard field goal: 3 points, then Atlanta Falcons takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +1.64 EP
  • 3% chance to miss: Atlanta Falcons takes over around their own 21, worth -1.04 EP
PUNT -0.42 EP
  • Atlanta Falcons would take over around their own 11, worth -0.42 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO ✓ matched the model