Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Atlanta Falcons 4th & 4 at the 82

Atlanta Falcons 10 – Tennessee Titans 24

(12:26) (Shotgun) 2-M.Ryan pass short left to 12-M.Sanu to ATL 26 for 8 yards (37-A.Hooker).

The Three Options

GO -1.65 EP

What Happened

51% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 78, worth +1.13 EP
49% chance to fail: Tennessee Titans takes over around their own 82, worth -4.52 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (99 yards).

Chose GO ✓ matched the model