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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Arizona Cardinals 4th & 6 at the 19

Arizona Cardinals 7 – Cincinnati Bengals 3

What Actually Happened

(13:00) 5-Z.Gonzalez 37 yard field goal is No Good, Wide Right, Center-46-A.Brewer, Holder-4-A.Lee.

The Three Options

GO +1.04 EP
  • 34% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 13, worth +4.94 EP
  • 66% chance to fail: Cincinnati Bengals takes over around their own 19, worth -0.96 EP
KICK +1.37 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 91% chance to make a 36-yard field goal: 3 points, then Cincinnati Bengals takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +1.66 EP
  • 9% chance to miss: Cincinnati Bengals takes over around their own 29, worth -1.66 EP
PUNT -0.32 EP
  • Cincinnati Bengals would take over around their own 11, worth -0.32 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model