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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Cincinnati Bengals 4th & 5 at the 56

Cincinnati Bengals 3 – Arizona Cardinals 7

What Actually Happened

(10:16) 10-K.Huber punts 36 yards to ARI 20, Center-46-C.Harris, fair catch by 12-P.Cooper.

The Three Options

GO -0.34 EP
Model's Pick
  • 44% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 51, worth +2.98 EP
  • 56% chance to fail: Arizona Cardinals takes over around their own 56, worth -2.90 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (73 yards).

PUNT -0.79 EP
What Happened
  • Arizona Cardinals would take over around their own 17, worth -0.79 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.46 EP