Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Arizona Cardinals 4th & 10 at the 75

Arizona Cardinals 23 – Cincinnati Bengals 16

(3:52) 9-R.Winslow punts 55 yards to CIN 20, Center-46-A.Brewer. 83-T.Boyd to CIN 19 for -1 yards (16-T.Sherfield).

The Three Options

GO -2.27 EP

33% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 65, worth +1.45 EP
67% chance to fail: Cincinnati Bengals takes over around their own 75, worth -4.09 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (92 yards).

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model