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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Atlanta Falcons 4th & 6 at the 79

Atlanta Falcons 0 – Houston Texans 0

What Actually Happened

(13:40) 4-M.Wile punts 49 yards to HOU 30, Center-47-J.Harris. 14-D.Carter to HOU 37 for 7 yards (20-K.Sheffield).

The Three Options

GO -2.27 EP
Model's Pick
  • 45% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 73, worth +0.74 EP
  • 55% chance to fail: Houston Texans takes over around their own 79, worth -4.75 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (96 yards).

PUNT -2.53 EP
What Happened
  • Houston Texans would take over around their own 36, worth -2.53 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model