Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Atlanta Falcons 4th & 10 at the 75

Atlanta Falcons 17 – Houston Texans 23

(10:18) 4-M.Wile punts 52 yards to HOU 23, Center-47-J.Harris. 14-D.Carter to HOU 34 for 11 yards (47-J.Harris; 87-J.Graham).

The Three Options

GO -2.28 EP

36% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 65, worth +1.53 EP
64% chance to fail: Houston Texans takes over around their own 75, worth -4.46 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (92 yards).

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model