4TH&DATA
EN ES
Back to Game

Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Houston Texans 4th & 4 at the 7

Houston Texans 23 – Atlanta Falcons 17

What Actually Happened

(7:40) 7-K.Fairbairn 26 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-J.Weeks, Holder-9-B.Anger.

The Three Options

GO +2.85 EP
Model's Pick
  • 43% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 3, worth +6.23 EP
  • 57% chance to fail: Atlanta Falcons takes over around their own 7, worth +0.32 EP
KICK +2.14 EP
What Happened
  • 98% chance to make a 24-yard field goal: 3 points, then Atlanta Falcons takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +2.20 EP
  • 2% chance to miss: Atlanta Falcons takes over around their own 21, worth -0.53 EP
PUNT +0.14 EP
  • Atlanta Falcons would take over around their own 11, worth +0.14 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.71 EP