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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Tennessee Titans 4th & 15 at the 18

Tennessee Titans 0 – Buffalo Bills 7

What Actually Happened

(:49) (Field Goal formation) 7-C.Santos 36 yard field goal is No Good, Wide Right, Center-48-B.Brinkley, Holder-6-B.Kern.

The Three Options

GO +1.10 EP
  • 22% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 3, worth +6.19 EP
  • 78% chance to fail: Buffalo Bills takes over around their own 18, worth -0.36 EP
KICK +2.04 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 91% chance to make a 35-yard field goal: 3 points, then Buffalo Bills takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +2.31 EP
  • 9% chance to miss: Buffalo Bills takes over around their own 28, worth -0.77 EP
PUNT +0.01 EP
  • Buffalo Bills would take over around their own 11, worth +0.01 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model