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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Tennessee Titans 4th & 2 at the 67

Tennessee Titans 0 – Buffalo Bills 0

What Actually Happened

(12:11) (Punt formation) 6-B.Kern punts 50 yards to BUF 17, Center-48-B.Brinkley, out of bounds.

The Three Options

GO -0.19 EP
Model's Pick
  • 59% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 65, worth +2.20 EP
  • 41% chance to fail: Buffalo Bills takes over around their own 67, worth -3.66 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (84 yards).

PUNT -0.61 EP
What Happened
  • Buffalo Bills would take over around their own 25, worth -0.61 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.41 EP