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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Tennessee Titans 4th & 3 at the 80

Tennessee Titans 0 – Buffalo Bills 7

What Actually Happened

(11:49) (Punt formation) 6-B.Kern punts 50 yards to BUF 30, Center-48-B.Brinkley, out of bounds.

The Three Options

GO -1.52 EP
Model's Pick
  • 54% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 77, worth +1.04 EP
  • 46% chance to fail: Buffalo Bills takes over around their own 80, worth -4.54 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (97 yards).

PUNT -1.98 EP
What Happened
  • Buffalo Bills would take over around their own 37, worth -1.98 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.46 EP