Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Buffalo Bills 4th & 6 at the 61

Buffalo Bills 7 – Tennessee Titans 7

(4:04) (Punt formation) 9-C.Bojorquez punts 47 yards to TEN 14, Center-69-R.Ferguson, fair catch by 10-A.Humphries.

The Three Options

GO -1.08 EP

39% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 55, worth +2.34 EP
61% chance to fail: Tennessee Titans takes over around their own 61, worth -3.30 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (78 yards).

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model