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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Tennessee Titans 4th & 15 at the 15

Tennessee Titans 7 – Buffalo Bills 7

What Actually Happened

(12:27) (Field Goal formation) 7-C.Santos 33 yard field goal is BLOCKED (92-D.Johnson), Center-48-B.Brinkley, Holder-6-B.Kern.

The Three Options

GO +0.82 EP
  • 22% chance to convert, and it's a touchdown from here: worth +5.83 EP
  • 78% chance to fail: Buffalo Bills takes over around their own 15, worth -0.59 EP
KICK +1.70 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 94% chance to make a 32-yard field goal: 3 points, then Buffalo Bills takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +1.89 EP
  • 6% chance to miss: Buffalo Bills takes over around their own 25, worth -1.11 EP
PUNT -0.22 EP
  • Buffalo Bills would take over around their own 11, worth -0.22 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model