4TH&DATA
EN ES
Back to Game

Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Buffalo Bills 4th & 7 at the 61

Buffalo Bills 0 – Tennessee Titans 0

What Actually Happened

(9:47) (Punt formation) 9-C.Bojorquez punts 61 yards to end zone, Center-69-R.Ferguson, Touchback.

The Three Options

GO -1.47 EP
  • 37% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 54, worth +2.29 EP
  • 63% chance to fail: Tennessee Titans takes over around their own 61, worth -3.67 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (78 yards).

PUNT -0.96 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Tennessee Titans would take over around their own 20, worth -0.96 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model