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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Tennessee Titans 4th & 4 at the 35

Tennessee Titans 7 – Buffalo Bills 14

What Actually Happened

(6:35) (Field Goal formation) 7-C.Santos 53 yard field goal is No Good, Wide Left, Center-48-B.Brinkley, Holder-6-B.Kern.

The Three Options

GO +0.62 EP
Model's Pick
  • 43% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 31, worth +3.63 EP
  • 57% chance to fail: Buffalo Bills takes over around their own 35, worth -1.69 EP
KICK +0.16 EP
What Happened
  • 61% chance to make a 52-yard field goal: 3 points, then Buffalo Bills takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +1.67 EP
  • 39% chance to miss: Buffalo Bills takes over around their own 45, worth -2.18 EP
PUNT -0.55 EP
  • Buffalo Bills would take over around their own 11, worth -0.55 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.46 EP