Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Buffalo Bills 4th & 9 at the 56

Buffalo Bills 14 – Tennessee Titans 7

(5:35) (Punt formation) 9-C.Bojorquez punts 56 yards to end zone, Center-69-R.Ferguson, Touchback.

The Three Options

GO -0.92 EP

32% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 47, worth +2.62 EP
68% chance to fail: Tennessee Titans takes over around their own 56, worth -2.62 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (73 yards).

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model