Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Tennessee Titans 4th & 5 at the 75

Tennessee Titans 7 – Buffalo Bills 14

(4:21) (Punt formation) 6-B.Kern punts 48 yards to BUF 27, Center-48-B.Brinkley. 18-A.Roberts to BUF 29 for 2 yards (29-D.Cruikshank).

The Three Options

GO -1.81 EP

45% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 70, worth +1.00 EP
55% chance to fail: Buffalo Bills takes over around their own 75, worth -4.10 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (92 yards).

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model