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Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades.
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Q1
Buffalo Bills
4th & 2 at the 31
Buffalo Bills 0 – Tennessee Titans 0
What Actually Happened
(3:16) 17-J.Allen up the middle to TEN 30 for 1 yard (55-J.Brown).
The Three Options
GO
+1.32 EP
What Happened
Model's Pick
-
54% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 29, worth +3.93 EP
- 46% chance to fail: Tennessee Titans takes over around their own 31, worth -1.73 EP
KICK
+0.46 EP
- 71% chance to make a 48-yard field goal: 3 points, then Tennessee Titans takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +1.63 EP
- 29% chance to miss: Tennessee Titans takes over around their own 41, worth -2.38 EP
PUNT
-0.37 EP
- Tennessee Titans would take over around their own 11, worth -0.37 EP
The Verdict
Chose GO
✓ matched the model
