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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Tennessee Titans 4th & 15 at the 32

Tennessee Titans 0 – Buffalo Bills 0

What Actually Happened

(15:00) (Field Goal formation) 7-C.Santos 50 yard field goal is No Good, Wide Left, Center-48-B.Brinkley, Holder-6-B.Kern.

The Three Options

GO +0.30 EP
  • 24% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 17, worth +5.00 EP
  • 76% chance to fail: Buffalo Bills takes over around their own 32, worth -1.15 EP
KICK +0.96 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 68% chance to make a 49-yard field goal: 3 points, then Buffalo Bills takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +2.29 EP
  • 32% chance to miss: Buffalo Bills takes over around their own 42, worth -1.93 EP
PUNT +0.20 EP
  • Buffalo Bills would take over around their own 11, worth +0.20 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model