Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Chicago Bears 4th & 14 at the 84

Chicago Bears 0 – Las Vegas Raiders 14

(7:44) (Punt formation) 16-P.O'Donnell punts 48 yards to LV 36, Center-48-P.Scales. 11-T.Davis pushed ob at LV 49 for 13 yards (47-I.Irving).

The Three Options

GO -2.89 EP

32% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 70, worth +1.27 EP
68% chance to fail: Las Vegas Raiders takes over around their own 84, worth -4.89 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (101 yards).

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model