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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Las Vegas Raiders 4th & 14 at the 23

Las Vegas Raiders 14 – Chicago Bears 0

What Actually Happened

(2:00) (Field Goal formation) 8-D.Carlson 41 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-47-T.Sieg, Holder-6-A.Cole.

The Three Options

GO +0.54 EP
  • 23% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 9, worth +5.07 EP
  • 77% chance to fail: Chicago Bears takes over around their own 23, worth -0.84 EP
KICK +1.53 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 85% chance to make a 40-yard field goal: 3 points, then Chicago Bears takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +2.05 EP
  • 15% chance to miss: Chicago Bears takes over around their own 33, worth -1.41 EP
PUNT -0.36 EP
  • Chicago Bears would take over around their own 11, worth -0.36 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model