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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Las Vegas Raiders 4th & 14 at the 56

Las Vegas Raiders 17 – Chicago Bears 14

What Actually Happened

(1:58) (Punt formation) 6-A.Cole punts 43 yards to CHI 13, Center-47-T.Sieg. 29-T.Cohen to LV 16 for 71 yards (22-K.Nixon).

The Three Options

GO -1.33 EP
  • 26% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 42, worth +3.10 EP
  • 74% chance to fail: Chicago Bears takes over around their own 56, worth -2.93 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (73 yards).

PUNT -0.54 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Chicago Bears would take over around their own 17, worth -0.54 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model