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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Green Bay Packers 4th & 16 at the 78

Green Bay Packers 14 – Dallas Cowboys 0

What Actually Happened

(11:22) (Punt formation) 6-J.Scott punts 57 yards to DAL 21, Center-43-H.Bradley. 10-T.Austin to DAL 31 for 10 yards (13-A.Lazard).

The Three Options

GO -2.69 EP
  • 29% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 62, worth +1.86 EP
  • 71% chance to fail: Dallas Cowboys takes over around their own 78, worth -4.56 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (95 yards).

PUNT -2.17 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Dallas Cowboys would take over around their own 35, worth -2.17 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model