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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Dallas Cowboys 4th & 18 at the 18

Dallas Cowboys 0 – Green Bay Packers 24

What Actually Happened

(5:58) (Field Goal formation) 2-B.Maher 36 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-91-L.Ladouceur, Holder-6-C.Jones.

The Three Options

GO +1.10 EP
  • 24% chance to convert, and it's a touchdown from here: worth +6.17 EP
  • 76% chance to fail: Green Bay Packers takes over around their own 18, worth -0.48 EP
KICK +1.99 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 93% chance to make a 35-yard field goal: 3 points, then Green Bay Packers takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +2.23 EP
  • 7% chance to miss: Green Bay Packers takes over around their own 28, worth -1.09 EP
PUNT +0.15 EP
  • Green Bay Packers would take over around their own 11, worth +0.15 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model