Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Green Bay Packers 4th & 10 at the 75

Green Bay Packers 31 – Dallas Cowboys 10

(:27) (Punt formation) 6-J.Scott punts 45 yards to DAL 30, Center-43-H.Bradley, out of bounds.

The Three Options

GO -2.22 EP

36% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 65, worth +1.66 EP
64% chance to fail: Dallas Cowboys takes over around their own 75, worth -4.36 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (92 yards).

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model