4TH&DATA
EN ES
Back to Game

Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Dallas Cowboys 4th & 17 at the 44

Dallas Cowboys 0 – Green Bay Packers 7

What Actually Happened

(5:30) (Punt formation) 6-C.Jones punts 33 yards to GB 11, Center-91-L.Ladouceur, fair catch by 10-D.Shepherd.

The Three Options

GO -0.24 EP
  • 27% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 27, worth +4.44 EP
  • 73% chance to fail: Green Bay Packers takes over around their own 44, worth -1.97 EP
KICK -0.20 EP
  • 47% chance to make a 61-yard field goal: 3 points, then Green Bay Packers takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +2.38 EP
  • 53% chance to miss: Green Bay Packers takes over around their own 49, worth -2.49 EP
PUNT +0.10 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Green Bay Packers would take over around their own 12, worth +0.10 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model