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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Indianapolis Colts 4th & 12 at the 14

Indianapolis Colts 7 – Kansas City Chiefs 10

What Actually Happened

(11:16) 4-A.Vinatieri 32 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-L.Rhodes, Holder-8-R.Sanchez.

The Three Options

GO +1.15 EP
  • 27% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 2, worth +6.08 EP
  • 73% chance to fail: Kansas City Chiefs takes over around their own 14, worth -0.71 EP
KICK +1.40 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 95% chance to make a 31-yard field goal: 3 points, then Kansas City Chiefs takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +1.55 EP
  • 5% chance to miss: Kansas City Chiefs takes over around their own 24, worth -1.42 EP
PUNT -0.47 EP
  • Kansas City Chiefs would take over around their own 11, worth -0.47 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model