4TH&DATA
EN ES
Back to Game

Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Kansas City Chiefs 4th & 6 at the 42

Kansas City Chiefs 10 – Indianapolis Colts 10

What Actually Happened

(1:51) 2-D.Colquitt punts 30 yards to IND 12, Center-41-J.Winchester, fair catch by 80-C.Rogers.

The Three Options

GO +0.48 EP
Model's Pick
  • 44% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 36, worth +3.50 EP
  • 56% chance to fail: Indianapolis Colts takes over around their own 42, worth -1.93 EP
KICK -0.20 EP
  • 50% chance to make a 59-yard field goal: 3 points, then Indianapolis Colts takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +2.02 EP
  • 50% chance to miss: Indianapolis Colts takes over around their own 49, worth -2.40 EP
PUNT -0.42 EP
What Happened
  • Indianapolis Colts would take over around their own 12, worth -0.42 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.90 EP