4TH&DATA
EN ES
Back to Game

Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Indianapolis Colts 4th & 7 at the 41

Indianapolis Colts 13 – Kansas City Chiefs 10

What Actually Happened

(2:30) 8-R.Sanchez punts 36 yards to KC 5, Center-46-L.Rhodes, fair catch by 84-D.Thomas.

The Three Options

GO -0.09 EP
Model's Pick
  • 39% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 34, worth +3.39 EP
  • 61% chance to fail: Kansas City Chiefs takes over around their own 41, worth -2.27 EP
KICK -0.54 EP
  • 52% chance to make a 58-yard field goal: 3 points, then Kansas City Chiefs takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +1.60 EP
  • 48% chance to miss: Kansas City Chiefs takes over around their own 49, worth -2.89 EP
PUNT -0.60 EP
What Happened
  • Kansas City Chiefs would take over around their own 12, worth -0.60 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.52 EP