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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Indianapolis Colts 4th & 1 at the 27

Indianapolis Colts 13 – Kansas City Chiefs 10

What Actually Happened

(11:15) 7-J.Brissett up the middle to KC 25 for 2 yards (90-E.Ogbah; 91-D.Nnadi).

The Three Options

GO +2.16 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 69% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 26, worth +3.78 EP
  • 31% chance to fail: Kansas City Chiefs takes over around their own 27, worth -1.39 EP
KICK +0.96 EP
  • 83% chance to make a 44-yard field goal: 3 points, then Kansas City Chiefs takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +1.57 EP
  • 17% chance to miss: Kansas City Chiefs takes over around their own 37, worth -1.95 EP
PUNT -0.92 EP
  • Kansas City Chiefs would take over around their own 11, worth -0.92 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO ✓ matched the model