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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Indianapolis Colts 4th & 10 at the 13

Indianapolis Colts 13 – Kansas City Chiefs 10

What Actually Happened

(7:44) 4-A.Vinatieri 31 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-L.Rhodes, Holder-8-R.Sanchez.

The Three Options

GO +1.18 EP
  • 30% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 3, worth +5.82 EP
  • 70% chance to fail: Kansas City Chiefs takes over around their own 13, worth -0.80 EP
KICK +1.73 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 95% chance to make a 30-yard field goal: 3 points, then Kansas City Chiefs takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +1.86 EP
  • 5% chance to miss: Kansas City Chiefs takes over around their own 23, worth -1.08 EP
PUNT -0.73 EP
  • Kansas City Chiefs would take over around their own 11, worth -0.73 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model