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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Kansas City Chiefs 4th & 1 at the 66

Kansas City Chiefs 10 – Indianapolis Colts 16

What Actually Happened

(5:06) 26-Dam.Williams up the middle to KC 33 for -1 yards (99-J.Houston).

The Three Options

GO -0.17 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 75% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 65, worth +0.74 EP
  • 25% chance to fail: Indianapolis Colts takes over around their own 66, worth -2.94 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (83 yards).

PUNT -0.59 EP
  • Indianapolis Colts would take over around their own 24, worth -0.59 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO ✓ matched the model