Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Jacksonville Jaguars 4th & 10 at the 59

Jacksonville Jaguars 7 – Carolina Panthers 21

What Actually Happened

(10:51) 9-L.Cooke punts 38 yards to CAR 21, Center-46-M.Orzech. 14-R.McCloud to CAR 24 for 3 yards (57-D.Alexander). PENALTY on JAX-57-D.Alexander, Face Mask (15 Yards), 15 yards, enforced at CAR 24.

The Three Options

GO -1.47 EP

31% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 49, worth +2.69 EP
69% chance to fail: Carolina Panthers takes over around their own 59, worth -3.31 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (76 yards).

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model