4TH&DATA
EN ES
Back to Game

Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Carolina Panthers 4th & 6 at the 57

Carolina Panthers 21 – Jacksonville Jaguars 7

What Actually Happened

(9:53) 5-M.Palardy punts 40 yards to JAX 17, Center-44-J.Jansen, fair catch by 12-D.Westbrook.

The Three Options

GO -0.57 EP
Model's Pick
  • 40% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 51, worth +2.96 EP
  • 60% chance to fail: Jacksonville Jaguars takes over around their own 57, worth -2.94 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (74 yards).

PUNT -0.79 EP
What Happened
  • Jacksonville Jaguars would take over around their own 17, worth -0.79 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model